Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Celia Wind Speed Probabilities


000
FOPZ13 KNHC 172035
PWSEP3

TROPICAL STORM CELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032022               
2100 UTC FRI JUN 17 2022                                            

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

10N 105W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

15N 105W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)

10N 100W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   1( 8)

15N 100W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)

10N 95W        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)

P SAN JOSE     34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

10N 90W        34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PAPIN                                                    



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