Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Celia Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ43 KNHC 222041
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032022
400 PM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

The convective pattern associated with Celia has been improving this
afternoon. Although the storm is still asymmetric, thunderstorm
activity is beginning to curve around the center of circulation
during the past couple of hours. A recent ASCAT-B pass captured a
portion of the western side of the system, and showed reliable winds
in the 35-40 kt range. Dvorak estimates range from 37 to 55 kt.
Based on a combination of all of this data, the initial intensity is
increased a little to 45 kt.

The storm is moving to the west-northwest at 7 kt, and it is
currently being steered by a strong mid-level ridge centered over
the south-central U.S. This ridge is expected to remain in control
during the next several days, and it should keep Celia on a general
west-northwest track through the forecast period. The NHC track
forecast lies near the southern edge of the guidance in the short
term, partially based on extrapolation, but near the consensus
models after that.

The environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable
for Celia during the next couple of days. The SHIPS model shows the
shear decreasing to about 10 kt during that time while the storm
remains over 27-28 degree C waters. These conditions should allow
Celia to strengthen, and it is expected to become a hurricane in
about 36 hours. By the weekend, however, Celia is expected to cross
the 26 degree C isotherm and move into a drier airmass, which should
end the strengthening trend and induce gradual weakening. The NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and near the HCCA
and IVCN consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 13.8N 104.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 14.4N 105.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 15.4N 107.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  24/0600Z 16.0N 108.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  24/1800Z 16.5N 109.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  25/0600Z 17.2N 110.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  25/1800Z 18.0N 111.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  26/1800Z 19.2N 115.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  27/1800Z 20.3N 119.1W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



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