Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Celia Forecast Discussion


387 
WTPZ43 KNHC 270853
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number  43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032022
200 AM PDT Mon Jun 27 2022

Celia appears to be deteriorating based on geostationary 
satellite imagery. The storm continues to have small bursts of 
convection on the western and southern portion of the circulation, 
however any significant convection in the northern semicircle has 
disappeared.  A scatterometer pass over the inner core at 0430 UTC 
showed only a small area of tropical-storm-force winds, mostly in 
the northwest quadrant of the storm, with peak winds of only 35-40 
kt. Therefore, the initial intensity has been lowered to 45 kt to 
account for potential undersampling.  Dynamic and statistical model 
guidance all forecast Celia to gradually weaken as the system moves 
over cooler waters and into a dry, stable environment.  The 
official forecast predicts the system will become a post-tropical 
remnant low by 36 h, when it will likely be devoid of deep 
convection, and dissipated within a few days.

The storm is moving west-northwest at 10 kt. A mid-level ridge 
extending over the eastern North Pacific is expected to continue 
steering Celia at this approximate speed and direction until the 
system dissipates.  The NHC forecast is quite similar to the 
previous forecast advisory and remains within the tightly 
clustered model guidance.

Despite not becoming a hurricane, Celia is now tied for the 5th 
longest-lasting June tropical cyclone in the eastern Pacific. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0900Z 20.4N 116.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  27/1800Z 21.0N 117.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  28/0600Z 21.7N 119.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  28/1800Z 22.5N 121.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  29/0600Z 23.2N 123.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  29/1800Z 23.8N 125.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake




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