Pacific Hurricane Feed

Tropical Storm Celia Forecast Discussion



000
WTPZ43 KNHC 242035
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number  33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032022
300 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Celia has the appearance of becoming better organized, with
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates of
T4.0 all suggesting it's at hurricane strength.  However, two
recent scatterometer passes only showed winds as high as 35-40 kt,
so any strengthening of the wind field is apparently lagging the
improved convective structure.  Because of this large discrepancy
in estimates, the initial intensity is held at 55 kt.  The
scatterometer data also indicate that Celia is asymmetric, with no
tropical-storm-force winds on the west side.

Celia's speed has slowed further, and the initial motion estimate 
is 285/5 kt.  This is about the slowest Celia is expected to move, 
and its forward speed is forecast to gradually increase over the 
next five days as the ridge to the north strengthens and expands 
westward.  There are no significant changes to the track forecast 
reasoning on this cycle, and the updated NHC track prediction is 
basically an update of the morning forecast.

Celia still has a small window of time for the wind field to 
strengthen and catch up to the satellite presentation, and the NHC 
forecast continues to show it becoming a hurricane in the next 12 
to 24 hours.  This forecast closely follows the HCCA consensus aid. 
However, cooler waters ahead of the storm are expected to induce 
weakening after 36 hours, and Celia is likely to become 
post-tropical by day 4 when it loses its deep convection.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/2100Z 17.2N 108.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 17.6N 109.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 18.1N 111.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  26/0600Z 18.6N 112.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  26/1800Z 19.1N 114.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  27/0600Z 19.6N 116.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  27/1800Z 20.2N 118.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  28/1800Z 21.3N 123.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  29/1800Z 21.9N 128.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg



Source link