Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Celia Forecast Discussion


759 
WTPZ43 KNHC 240838
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number  31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032022
300 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Satellite imagery indicates that Celia is on a gradual 
strengthening trend, with an area of convection near and east of 
the center.  The latest microwave data, a 0200 UTC F-17 pass, showed 
a small inner core in the 91-GHz channel.  The subjective and 
objective Dvorak intensity estimates range between 45 and 55 kt, and 
the initial intensity has been increased to 50 kt.

Wind shear over the storm is slowly decreasing, and Celia has a 
short window in the next day or so where environmental conditions 
are expected to be favorable for additional strengthening.  Beyond 
about 48 h, the system is expected to be over increasingly cooler 
waters and encountering a drier airmass.  These factors will 
cause Celia to begin weakening and eventually transition to a 
remnant by the end of the forecast period.  The official intensity 
forecast follows the overall model consensus and is quite similar 
to the previous advisory.

Celia continues its west-northwestward trek at about 7 kt around a 
mid-level ridge located over the southern United States.  This 
motion is expected to slightly slow over the next couple days 
before increasing in speed at the end of the forecast period as 
the ridge builds to its north.  The NHC track forecast is a bit 
faster than the previous advisory and lies close to track model 
consensus guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0900Z 17.0N 108.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 17.3N 109.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 17.7N 110.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  25/1800Z 18.2N 111.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  26/0600Z 18.8N 112.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  26/1800Z 19.4N 114.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  27/0600Z 20.0N 116.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  28/0600Z 21.3N 120.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  29/0600Z 22.0N 125.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake




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