759 WTPZ43 KNHC 240838 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022 300 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022 Satellite imagery indicates that Celia is on a gradual strengthening trend, with an area of convection near and east of the center. The latest microwave data, a 0200 UTC F-17 pass, showed a small inner core in the 91-GHz channel. The subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates range between 45 and 55 kt, and the initial intensity has been increased to 50 kt. Wind shear over the storm is slowly decreasing, and Celia has a short window in the next day or so where environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for additional strengthening. Beyond about 48 h, the system is expected to be over increasingly cooler waters and encountering a drier airmass. These factors will cause Celia to begin weakening and eventually transition to a remnant by the end of the forecast period. The official intensity forecast follows the overall model consensus and is quite similar to the previous advisory. Celia continues its west-northwestward trek at about 7 kt around a mid-level ridge located over the southern United States. This motion is expected to slightly slow over the next couple days before increasing in speed at the end of the forecast period as the ridge builds to its north. The NHC track forecast is a bit faster than the previous advisory and lies close to track model consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 17.0N 108.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 17.3N 109.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 17.7N 110.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 18.2N 111.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 18.8N 112.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 26/1800Z 19.4N 114.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 20.0N 116.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 21.3N 120.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 29/0600Z 22.0N 125.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Bucci/Blake