Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Celia Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ43 KNHC 231437
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032022
900 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022

Celia is a bit of a conundrum.  The strong east-northeasterly shear 
which was affecting the system over the past couple of days has 
lessened and turned out of the north, but the cyclone may have 
ingested so much dry air during that time that it's now struggling 
to produce much convection near its center.  That said, new 
convection has recently been developing just to the east of the 
center.  The initial intensity is being generously held at 45 kt, at 
the upper end of the estimate range, in the hopes that we'll get 
some scatterometer data later today.

The storm's 12-hour motion is northwestward, or 315/11 kt, but 
there are signs it may be turning back to the west-northwest.  
There are no changes in the forecast track reasoning, with 
mid-level high pressure over northern Mexico still expected to 
drive Celia west-northwestward for the next 4 days or so.  A 
westward turn is expected by day 5 as a weaker Celia is steered by 
lower-level winds.  The biggest change this morning is that there 
is much tighter spread among the guidance, with the HWRF no longer 
a southern outlier as in previous days.  Confidence in the track 
forecast is therefore higher than it had been.

The big question for intensity is whether the dry air near the 
core can be mixed out and allow deep convection to organize near 
the center.  The environment appears conducive for that to happen, 
with shear expected to be generally low and SSTs to be 26 degrees 
or higher for the next 2 days or so.  The peak intensity in the NHC 
forecast has been lowered slightly due to time over warm waters 
being a limiting factor, but Celia still has the potential to 
become a hurricane during the next couple of days.  Much colder 
waters and a more stable atmosphere should cause Celia to become 
post-tropical by day 5.

The initial 12-foot seas radii have been adjusted and expanded 
significantly over Celia's eastern semicircle by TAFB based on data 
from a 0730 UTC Cryosat-2 pass.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 16.0N 106.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 16.6N 107.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 17.0N 108.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  25/0000Z 17.3N 109.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  25/1200Z 17.8N 110.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  26/0000Z 18.5N 112.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  26/1200Z 19.1N 113.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  27/1200Z 20.5N 117.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  28/1200Z 21.4N 122.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Berg



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