Tropical Storm Carlotta Wind Speed Probabilities

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 312042
PWSEP3

TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2         
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032024               
2100 UTC WED JUL 31 2024                                            

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

15N 110W       34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

20N 110W       34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

ISLA SOCORRO   34  X  13(13)   4(17)   1(18)   X(18)   1(19)   X(19)

ISLA CLARION   34  X   2( 2)  54(56)  31(87)   1(88)   X(88)   X(88)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)  18(18)  33(51)   1(52)   1(53)   X(53)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   5( 5)  19(24)   1(25)   X(25)   X(25)

15N 115W       34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   5( 9)   3(12)   1(13)   X(13)

20N 115W       34  X   1( 1)  10(11)  17(28)   4(32)   X(32)   X(32)
20N 115W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
20N 115W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

15N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)   4(19)   1(20)
15N 120W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

20N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  38(42)   7(49)   2(51)
20N 120W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   3(13)   X(13)
20N 120W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)

15N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)

20N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  16(18)  21(39)
20N 125W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)
20N 125W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

25N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PAPIN