Tropical Storm Carlotta Wind Speed Probabilities

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 041435
PWSEP3

TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  17         
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032024               
1500 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024                                            

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                              

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

20N 125W       34 94   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)   X(94)
20N 125W       50 23   1(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
20N 125W       64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

20N 130W       34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY