Tropical Storm Carlotta Wind Speed Probabilities

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 020245
PWSEP3

TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   7         
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032024               
0300 UTC FRI AUG 02 2024                                            

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                              

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

ISLA CLARION   34 90   8(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
ISLA CLARION   50 48  34(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)
ISLA CLARION   64 17  26(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)

20N 115W       34  2  11(13)   3(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)

15N 120W       34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

20N 120W       34  X   2( 2)  46(48)  30(78)   2(80)   X(80)   X(80)
20N 120W       50  X   X( X)  10(10)  28(38)   2(40)   X(40)   X(40)
20N 120W       64  X   X( X)   3( 3)  14(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)

15N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)

20N 125W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  62(68)   8(76)   X(76)
20N 125W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  31(31)   7(38)   X(38)
20N 125W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   2(15)   X(15)

25N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)

20N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  15(17)  10(27)
20N 130W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)

25N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)

20N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BUCCI