805 WTPZ43 KNHC 020246 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 800 PM MST Thu Aug 01 2024 Carlotta continues to hold steady. Geostationary satellite imagery show a healthy central dense overcast with periodic overshooting cloud tops. Recent microwave satellite imagery from AMSR2 and SSMIS reveal a more asymmetric low-level circulation. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range between 48-61 kt, and the initial intensity is held at 55 kt. The storm is moving at an estimated 285/10 kt along the south side of a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern United States. The strengthening ridge is expected to turn Carlotta westward within a day or so and steer the storm slightly north of west for the remainder of the forecast period. The official forecast has again shifted slightly northward, largely due to the estimated initial center location, and lies closest to the HCCA corrected consensus model. While the deep layer vertical wind shear appears to be weak, the microwave satellite imagery suggested Carlotta could be experiencing some moderate mid-level shear. Models indicate the generally conducive environmental and oceanic conditions should allow for additional strengthening within the next day or two. Beyond 48 h, cooling waters and more marginal environmental conditions should weaken Carlotta through the end of the forecast period. The intensity forecast remains similar to the previous forecast and lies near the top of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 17.9N 112.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 18.3N 114.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 18.6N 116.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 18.8N 119.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 19.1N 121.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 04/1200Z 19.4N 123.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 19.7N 124.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 20.2N 128.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 07/0000Z 20.5N 131.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci
Tropical Storm Carlotta Forecast Discussion

01
Aug