583 WTPZ43 KNHC 012046 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 200 PM MST Thu Aug 01 2024 Carlotta has changed little in organization since the last advisory, with satellite imagery showing a well-defined central dense overcast with a complex of outer bands in the eastern semicircle. Objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates are mainly in the 45-55 kt range, and they have nudged upward a little over the past six hours. Based on this, the initial intensity is increased to 55 kt. The initial motion is now 285/10 kt. Carlotta is on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge located over the southwestern United States and the adjacent northeastern Pacific. The ridge is expected to strengthen during the next day or two, and this should steer the cyclone more westward during this time. After about 60 h, Carlotta should move west-northwestward as it approaches a weakness in the mid-level part of the ridge caused by a large trough over the north Central Pacific. The track guidance has again shifted northward, and the new forecast track, which is in best agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus model, has also been shifted northward. Carlotta is expected to remain in an area of light shear for the next 48 h, with sea surface temperatures slowly decreasing along the forecast track during that time. Thus strengthening is expected, although the intensity guidance is forecasting less strengthening than on the previous cycles. Based on this, the forecast peak intensity has been decreased slightly, and the 85-kt peak intensity forecast is at the high end of the intensity guidance. After 48 h, increasing westerly shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures should cause Carlotta to weaken for the remainder of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 17.5N 111.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 17.9N 113.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 18.2N 115.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 18.4N 117.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 18.6N 120.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 04/0600Z 18.9N 122.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 19.2N 123.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 19.5N 127.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 20.0N 130.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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