000 WTPZ43 KNHC 010837 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 200 AM MST Thu Aug 01 2024 Carlotta has continued to strengthen tonight. A series of earlier SSMIS and GMI passive microwave images show that the storm has become better organized, with deep convection wrapping around the center and a formative mid-level eye becoming apparent in the 89-GHz channel. Unfortunately, no recent scatterometer data is available to better assess the size or intensity of Carlotta. TAFB and SAB provided T-3.0/45 kt subjective Dvorak estimates, while the UW-CIMSS objective satellite intensity estimates range from 41-55 kt. The initial intensity of the storm is raised to 50 kt based on a blend of these estimates. A ridge over the southwestern United States is steering Carlotta west-northwestward at about 10 kt, and this general motion is expected to continue today. As the ridge strengthens to the north of the storm, Carlotta is forecast to turn westward on Friday and continue on that heading through the weekend. The track models are in good agreement through the first few days of the forecast period, with increased spread noted thereafter in the deterministic models and global ensembles. The updated NHC track forecast lies slightly to the right of the previous track and is a bit faster in the longer range, following the latest multi-model consensus aid trends. Very warm SSTs and relatively low deep-layer shear appear favorable for significant to possibly rapid intensification of Carlotta during the next couple of days. Given that the microwave data suggest an inner core could be solidifying, Carlotta seems likely to take advantage of these favorable conditions and is expected to become a hurricane later today. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one, remaining on the high end of the intensity guidance envelope early in the forecast period and showing continued strengthening through early Saturday. The forecast track brings the storm over gradually cooler waters from 72-120 h, which should induce weakening by early next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 17.0N 109.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 17.6N 111.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 17.9N 113.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 18.1N 115.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 18.2N 118.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 03/1800Z 18.3N 120.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 18.5N 121.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 19.0N 124.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 06/0600Z 19.5N 126.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Source link