Tropical Storm Carlotta Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 052044
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032024
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 PM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024

Carlotta continues to struggle within hostile environmental
conditions, with sea surface temperatures below 25C and significant
vertical shear. The center of the tropical cyclone is fully exposed,
with the remaining deep convection confined to an outer rainband in
its northern quadrant. The TAFB intensity estimate was 35 kt, CIMSS
ADT was 25 kt, and CIMSS AiDT was 32 kt. The initial intensity for
this advisory is a conservative 35 kt.

Carlotta should continue to spin down as it moves over cool sea 
surface temperatures and remains within significant vertical shear. 
If current trends continue, and persistent deep convection does not 
redevelop, post-tropical cyclone status will occur soon.

The initial motion for Carlotta is 280/7 kt. This general motion
should continue for the rest of today, then should turn toward the
west-southwest as Carlotta's circulation becomes increasingly
shallow. This scenario is consistent with the objective aids. The
forecast track for this advisory reflects a slight northward
adjustment from the previous advisory and is close to the dynamical
consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 20.6N 127.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 20.7N 128.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 20.4N 130.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  07/0600Z 19.9N 131.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/1800Z 19.3N 132.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kodama