Tropical Storm Carlotta Forecast Discussion

740 
WTPZ43 KNHC 051446
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032024
800 AM PDT Mon Aug 05 2024

If not for a recent small burst of convection nearly 60 n mi from 
its center, Carlotta would be devoid of organized deep convection. 
The intensity estimate remains 40 kt, close to a recent UW-CIMSS 
SATCON estimate. Deep convection may persist today, but could cease 
at just about any time due to cold waters beneath Carlotta and a 
surounding dry and stable environment. By this time tomorrow, 
Carlotta should be a post-tropical cyclone.

Carlotta's initial motion remains 280/8kt. This general motion 
should continue today as long as Carlotta maintains some deep 
convection. A slight left turn toward the west-southwest should 
begin once the last of Carlotta's convection is gone. No significant 
changes were made to the NHC track or intensity forecasts.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 20.4N 127.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 20.5N 128.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 20.3N 129.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  07/0000Z 19.8N 131.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/1200Z 19.3N 132.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky