Tropical Storm Carlotta Forecast Advisory

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 010835
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032024
0900 UTC THU AUG 01 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 109.9W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  30SE  30SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 109.9W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 109.4W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.6N 111.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.9N 113.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.1N 115.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.2N 118.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.3N 120.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.5N 121.4W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 19.0N 124.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 19.5N 126.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 109.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART