Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Calvin Wind Speed Probabilities



000
FOPA11 PHFO 190855
PWSCP1

TROPICAL STORM CALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  31           
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP032023         
0900 UTC WED JUL 19 2023                                            

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 155.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

HILO           34  3   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

18N 156W       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
18N 156W       50  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

SOUTH POINT    34 81   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)

KAILUA-KONA    34  8   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

BUOY 51002     34 15   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)

20N 160W       34  2   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

BUOY 51003     34  2  27(29)   1(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)

20N 165W       34  X   1( 1)   7( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

20N 170W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER POWELL



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