000 WTPZ42 KNHC 242033 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024 200 PM MST Wed Jul 24 2024 Satellite imagery indicates that the disturbance located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become much better organized over the past 12 hours or so. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB is T-2.0/30 kt, and a pair of recent ASCAT passes shows a well-defined cyclone with 35-kt winds. Based on the ASCAT data and the improvement in convective organization observed on GOES-18 satellite images, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Bud. Bud is currently moving to the west-northwest at 14 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of Bud will cause a gradual turn to the west over the next day. On Friday, with Bud likely weakening, the cyclone should turn to the southwest and decelerate, following the low-level flow. Bud is currently in an environment that appears favorable in terms of warm SSTs and a moderately moist environment, but there appears to be some easterly shear affecting the cyclone. Therefore, no change in strength is expected during the next day or so, although some slight intensification cannot be ruled out. Beyond 36 h, the cyclone should begin traversing decreasing sea surface temperatures, and move into an environment of drier air and increasing vertical wind shear. Therefore, gradual weakening is forecast during that time. The intensity forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope and calls for the cyclone to become a remnant low on Friday, and dissipate on Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 17.1N 112.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 17.6N 113.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 17.8N 115.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 17.7N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 17.3N 118.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 27/0600Z 16.6N 119.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Berg
Tropical Storm Bud Forecast Discussion

24
Jul