Tropical Storm Bud Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 260836
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022024
200 AM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Bud is currently only generating isolated patches of deep 
convection to the south and southwest of the center.  The various 
subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have 
continued to decrease and are now in the 30-40 kt range.  Using 
these data, the initial intensity is lowered to a somewhat 
uncertain 35 kt.

The initial motion is now 285/9 kt.  Bud is on the south side of a 
low- to mid-level subtropical ridge, and this feature should steer 
the cyclone generally westward today.  After that, Bud or its 
remnants should turn west-southwestward in the low-level trade wind 
flow.  The guidance again has nudged to the north of the previous 
guidance, and the new forecast track is thus also nudged northward.

While it is possible there could be one more convective flare-up 
this morning, all of the guidance indicates that Bud should 
continue to weaken due to moving over cooler sea surface 
temperatures and into a more stable air mass.  Based on this, the 
new intensity forecast calls for Bud to weaken to a depression 
later today and degenerate to a remnant low pressure area by 24 h.  
The remnant low is forecast to dissipated between 60-72 h based on 
the global model guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0900Z 18.8N 118.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  26/1800Z 18.9N 120.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  27/0600Z 18.9N 122.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  27/1800Z 18.7N 123.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  28/0600Z 18.4N 125.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  28/1800Z 18.0N 126.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  29/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven