000 WTPZ42 KNHC 250834 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024 200 AM MST Thu Jul 25 2024 Bud continues to show a sheared cloud pattern this morning, with the low-level center near the eastern edge of the main area of deep convection. Recent ASCAT overpasses showed reliable-looking 35-40 kt winds northwest of the the center just north of the strongest convection, and based on these the initial intensity is increased to 40 kt. This intensity is also supported by other recent satellite intensity estimates of 35-40 kt. The initial motion is a little slower than before, 295/10 kt. The cyclone should turn westward over the next 12-24 h as it moves along the southern periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. Later, as the system weakens, a southwestward turn is forecast as the shallow vortex becomes steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The track guidance has shifted a bit to the north since the last advisory, and the new forecast track is moved northward as well. However, the new track is still to the south of the consensus models. Continued moderate shear and some nearby drier air are likely to prevent additional strengthening even though the cyclone is forecast to stay over relatively warm water. In addition, after 12 h Bud is expected to move into an area of upper-level convergence. This should make it more difficult for the system to keep producing convection, and the latest GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery suggest the convection will dissipate in 24 h or less. Based on this and the intensity guidance, the new intensity forecast calls for Bud to weaken, with the system becoming a depression in 24 h and a remnant low by 36 h. The remnant low is forecast to dissipate completely in 60-72 h in agreement with global model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 17.9N 114.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 18.1N 115.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 18.2N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 18.1N 118.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0600Z 17.7N 120.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 27/1800Z 17.2N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
Tropical Storm Bud Forecast Discussion

25
Jul