000 WTPZ42 KNHC 250236 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024 800 PM MST Wed Jul 24 2024 Bud is a sheared tropical storm. The surface center lies near the eastern edge of the coldest cloud tops associated with recent bursts of deep convection. The sharp edge to the cloud tops indicates that easterly shear is restricting the upper-level outflow over the eastern portion of the circulation. TAFB provided a T-2.5/35 kt subjective Dvorak estimate, which is consistent with the objective satellite intensity estimates and the earlier scatterometer data. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory. The effects of moderate shear and some drier air in the surrounding environment could make it difficult for Bud to become better organized in the near term. While some slight strengthening cannot be ruled out given the small size of the storm, all of the dynamical intensity models show a weakening trend during the next couple of days. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models suggest Bud could struggle to produce organized convection by late Thursday. The latest NHC forecast calls for Bud to become a post-tropical remnant low in 36 h and dissipate on Saturday. Bud is moving west-northwestward at 295/13 kt. The storm should turn westward over the next day or so as it moves along the southern periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. As the system weakens, a southwestward turn is forecast as the shallow vortex becomes steered by the low-level trade wind flow. No significant changes were made to the official NHC forecast for this advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 17.5N 113.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 17.8N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 17.9N 116.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 17.8N 118.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0000Z 17.3N 119.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 27/1200Z 16.6N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Tropical Storm Bud Forecast Discussion

24
Jul