Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Bonnie Wind Speed Probabilities


000
FOPZ14 KNHC 032040
PWSEP4

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  25           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042022               
2100 UTC SUN JUL 03 2022                                            

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                              

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

10N 105W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

15N 105W       34  X   X( X)  12(12)  71(83)   6(89)   X(89)   X(89)
15N 105W       50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  45(46)  10(56)   X(56)   X(56)
15N 105W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)  26(26)   8(34)   X(34)   X(34)

BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)

L CARDENAS     34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   5(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)

ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   3(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)

10N 100W       34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

15N 100W       34  1  47(48)  31(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)
15N 100W       50  X   5( 5)  22(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
15N 100W       64  X   1( 1)   9(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)

ACAPULCO       34  X   4( 4)   5( 9)   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)

P MALDONADO    34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

P ANGEL        34  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

15N 95W        34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

15N 110W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  48(50)  14(64)   1(65)
15N 110W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)  12(29)   X(29)
15N 110W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   8(14)   X(14)

20N 110W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)   X(11)

ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  17(28)   1(29)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   1( 7)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  23(24)  19(43)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   9(15)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)

15N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  21(22)  16(38)
15N 115W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   9(15)
15N 115W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)

20N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  11(19)
20N 115W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
20N 115W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

15N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)
15N 120W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
15N 120W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)

20N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)
20N 120W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    



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