Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Bonnie Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ44 KNHC 082032
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number  45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042022
200 PM PDT Fri Jul 08 2022

Bonnie's center remains embedded beneath a small Central Dense 
Overcast which hasn't really shrunk any further in size during the 
day.  That said, satellite intensity estimates have continued to 
decrease, and the estimated initial intensity of 55 kt is close to 
the Dvorak estimate from TAFB and a 1519 UTC SATCON estimate.  A 
recent ASCAT pass showed peak winds around 50 kt, which also 
supports an intensity of 55 kt given the instrument's low resolution 
and Bonnie's small size.  Sea surface temperatures below the storm 
are now 24 to 25 degrees Celsius and will continue to get colder 
over the next day or two while the atmosphere becomes more stable.  
Therefore, Bonnie's deep convection could dissipate by 24 hours, 
which is when it's shown becoming post-tropical in the forecast.  
Winds will continue to gradually decrease, and the system is 
expected to dissipate in 3 days, if not sooner.

The current motion is north of due west, or 280/16 kt.  Low- to 
mid-level ridging is expected to keep Bonnie on a quick westward 
track at 15 to 20 kt during the next couple of days until 
dissipation.  The NHC track forecast was nudged southward after 24 
hours to fall closer to the GFS and ECMWF solutions, but that 
update is fairly negligible.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/2100Z 18.6N 121.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 19.0N 124.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 19.3N 128.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  10/0600Z 19.4N 131.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  10/1800Z 19.4N 135.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  11/0600Z 19.4N 138.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg



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