Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Blas Wind Speed Probabilities


000
FOPZ12 KNHC 142058
PWSEP2

TROPICAL STORM BLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022022               
2100 UTC TUE JUN 14 2022                                            

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                                          

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)

P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

15N 105W       34  2  12(14)  36(50)  17(67)   2(69)   X(69)   X(69)
15N 105W       50  X   1( 1)  10(11)  15(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)
15N 105W       64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)

BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

MANZANILLO     34  1   3( 4)   5( 9)   7(16)   4(20)   X(20)   X(20)

L CARDENAS     34  2   7( 9)   9(18)   2(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)

ZIHUATANEJO    34  3   6( 9)   7(16)   2(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)

15N 100W       34  6   5(11)   3(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)

ACAPULCO       34  3   3( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)

15N 110W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  12(15)   4(19)   X(19)
15N 110W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

20N 110W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   7(19)   1(20)
20N 110W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)

ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)  17(34)   1(35)
ISLA SOCORRO   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   X( 9)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)

ISLA CLARION   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   5(12)

15N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

20N 115W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BUCCI/BLAKE                                              



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