000 WTPZ42 KNHC 141458 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022022 1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022 Satellite images indicate that the tropical cyclone southwest of Mexico continues to become better organized, with plenty of banding in the eastern semicircle and increased central deep convection. Dvorak estmates have increased to 35-45 kt, and the initial wind speed is raised to 40 kt, making this system the second tropical storm of the season. The environment near Blas looks conducive for further intensification during the next couple of days, with very warm waters and generally light shear. However, increased northeasterly shear is likely to begin on Thursday due to a building upper-level anticyclone over Mexico. Model guidance is higher than the last cycle, mostly due to the initial wind speed, and the NHC intensity forecast matches that trend. Weakening should commence by the end of the week due to stronger shear and cooler waters. Blas is drifting northward, caught in an area of light steering beneath a distant mid-tropospheric low over northern Mexico. The tropical cyclone should move little today and then start moving to the west-northwest at a faster pace due to the low moving out and a ridge building over Mexico. This motion should take the system gradually away from southwestern Mexico later in the week. Similar to the last cycle, although there is some spread in the models, especially in terms of forward speed, they generally agree on the overall scenario. This track forecast lies near the various consensus aids, a bit north of the last NHC track forecast. Even though the system is forecast to remain well off the coast of Mexico, the associated swells are expected to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico in a day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 13.9N 102.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 14.2N 102.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 14.6N 102.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 14.9N 103.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 15.4N 104.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 17/0000Z 16.0N 106.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 16.6N 108.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 17.9N 111.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 18.5N 114.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake/Bucci