Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Blas Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ42 KNHC 141458
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022022
1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022

Satellite images indicate that the tropical cyclone southwest of 
Mexico continues to become better organized, with plenty of banding 
in the eastern semicircle and increased central deep convection.  
Dvorak estmates have increased to 35-45 kt, and the initial wind 
speed is raised to 40 kt, making this system the second tropical 
storm of the season.

The environment near Blas looks conducive for further 
intensification during the next couple of days, with very warm 
waters and generally light shear.  However, increased northeasterly 
shear is likely to begin on Thursday due to a building upper-level 
anticyclone over Mexico.  Model guidance is higher than the last 
cycle, mostly due to the initial wind speed, and the NHC intensity 
forecast matches that trend.  Weakening should commence by the end 
of the week due to stronger shear and cooler waters.

Blas is drifting northward, caught in an area of light steering 
beneath a distant mid-tropospheric low over northern Mexico.  The 
tropical cyclone should move little today and then start moving to 
the west-northwest at a faster pace due to the low moving out and a 
ridge building over Mexico.  This motion should take the system 
gradually away from southwestern Mexico later in the week.  Similar 
to the last cycle, although there is some spread in the models, 
especially in terms of forward speed, they generally agree on the 
overall scenario. This track forecast lies near the various 
consensus aids, a bit north of the last NHC track forecast.

Even though the system is forecast to remain well off the coast of
Mexico, the associated swells are expected to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico in a day or so.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/1500Z 13.9N 102.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  15/0000Z 14.2N 102.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  15/1200Z 14.6N 102.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  16/0000Z 14.9N 103.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  16/1200Z 15.4N 104.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  17/0000Z 16.0N 106.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  17/1200Z 16.6N 108.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  18/1200Z 17.9N 111.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  19/1200Z 18.5N 114.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake/Bucci



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