Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Blas Forecast Discussion


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022022
900 PM MDT Sun Jun 19 2022

Satellite imagery indicates that Blas has lost any organized deep 
convection, with only a few small blobs of activity well northeast 
of the center.  Dvorak estimates still support keeping Blas a 
tropical storm for this advisory.  The cyclone should not be long 
for this world due to the continuing influences of dry air and cool 
waters.  Most likely, Blas will weaken into a tropical depression 
early Monday and a convection-free remnant low by Monday afternoon. 
This is the solution provided by much of the guidance, and little 
change was made to the previous NHC forecast.

Blas is moving slowly westward tonight at around 4 kt.  The storm 
should creep westward for the next couple of days within the weak
low-level trade flow.  The global models generally show Blas 
degenerating into a trough on day 3, so the dissipation time has 
been moved up to 60 h.  The track forecast is very close to the 
previous one and the model consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0300Z 19.1N 112.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z 19.2N 113.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  21/0000Z 19.3N 114.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  21/1200Z 19.5N 115.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  22/0000Z 19.7N 116.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

NNNN



Source link