Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Blas Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ42 KNHC 150845
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022022
400 AM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

Satellite imagery indicates that Blas is getting better organized, 
with the center now embedded in a circular central dense overcast 
that is mostly surrounded by outer convective bands.  Subjective 
and objective Dvorak technique intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, 
and CIMSS are all 55 kt, so that will be the initial intensity for 
this advisory.

Blas is starting its anticipated left turn and the initial motion 
is now 330/5.  A turn toward the west-northwest is expected during 
the next 24 h as Blas moves along the south side of a mid- to 
upper-level ridge extending westward from central Mexico and this 
general motion should continue with some increase in forward 
speed for the next several days.  The new forecast track has only 
minor adjustments from the previous track, and it lies in the 
middle of the track guidance envelope.

Blas has at least another 24 h of favorable conditions in which to 
intensify, and the cyclone is expected to become a hurricane later 
today.  In about 24 hours, the storm is forecast to experience 
increasing northeasterly shear, and it should move over cooler 
water between 48-60 h.  Based on these factors, and on the 
intensity guidance, Blas is expected to peak in intensity in about 
36 h, followed by a slow weakening through the rest of the forecast 
period.  The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous 
forecast, with the 80-kt peak intensity near the upper edge of the 
guidance envelope.

While Blas is expected to remain off the coast of Mexico, the
associated swells are expected to affect portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico starting later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0900Z 15.2N 102.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 15.7N 103.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  16/0600Z 16.2N 104.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  16/1800Z 16.8N 105.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  17/0600Z 17.3N 107.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  17/1800Z 17.9N 109.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  18/0600Z 18.4N 111.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  19/0600Z 19.0N 113.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  20/0600Z 19.5N 116.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven



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