Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Blas Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ42 KNHC 142059
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Blas Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022022
400 PM CDT Tue Jun 14 2022

The convective organization of Tropical Storm Blas continues to 
improve based on satellite imagery which shows a convective core 
forming with a well-defined mid-level circulation.  The initial wind 
speed has been raised to 45 kt and is in agreement with Dvorak 
estimates. 

Future intensification of Blas is expected in the short-term 
forecast.  The high SSTs and low vertical wind shear provide the 
baseline conditions for the storm to quickly intensify in the next 
24 h, as indicated by statistical model guidance.  Beyond this 
timeframe, environmental conditions are expected to become 
increasingly unfavorable as an upper-level anticyclone builds over 
Mexico and increases the shear over Blas.  The NHC intensity 
forecast is higher in the short-term than the last cycle and 
reflects the potential for quicker intensification.  

Blas continues to drift northward and the NHC track forecast has 
been shifted northward primarily due to initial storm motion and 
position.  By tomorrow Blas is expected to turn west-northwestward 
and gradually accelerate due to a building ridge and continue that 
motion for the next several days.  Model guidance has trended 
northward and faster, potentially due to a deeper tropical cyclone 
circulation feeling the upper-level easterly flow.  The NHC 
forecast is shifted in that direction near or just south of the 
consensus guidance.

Even though the system is forecast to remain off the coast of
Mexico, the associated swells are expected to affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico starting later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/2100Z 14.8N 102.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 15.1N 102.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 15.4N 102.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  16/0600Z 15.8N 103.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  16/1800Z 16.3N 105.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  17/0600Z 16.9N 107.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  17/1800Z 17.5N 109.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  18/1800Z 18.6N 112.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  19/1800Z 19.0N 114.3W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Blake



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