2024-07-04 16:32:02
1720125975
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 042031 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Aletta Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024 200 PM MST Thu Jul 04 2024 The satellite presentation of the tropical cyclone this afternoon consists of a small area of deep convection over the center, with a curved band over the western portion of the circulation. Various satellite estimates today indicate the compact system could be stronger than previously estimated. Recent UW-CIMSS objective satellite intensity estimates (including ADT, AiDT, DPRINT, and SATCON) range from 31-35 kt. SAB and TAFB provided T2.0 final-T numbers, although SAB did report a T2.5 data-T number. Also, there was an earlier RCM-1 SAR overpass that showed tropical-storm-force winds within the compact circulation. Given the small size of the system, these higher estimates appear believable, and so the initial intensity is raised to 35 kt for this advisory. Thus, the depression has strengthened to Tropical Storm Aletta. Aletta is moving northwestward (315 degrees) at around 9 kt. A turn toward the west-northwest and west is expected tonight and Friday as the shallow cyclone becomes increasingly steered by the low-level flow. Aletta is likely at or near its peak intensity. The bulk of the intensity guidance shows weakening over the next day or two while the storm moves into a drier environment over cooler SSTs. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF show convection could collapse overnight or early Friday, and the low is forecast to spin down and dissipate later this weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 17.9N 107.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 18.3N 108.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 18.2N 109.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 17.8N 111.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 06/1800Z 17.3N 112.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart