Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Storm Agatha Wind Speed Probabilities


000
FOPZ11 KNHC 282032
PWSEP1

TROPICAL STORM AGATHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012022               
2100 UTC SAT MAY 28 2022                                            

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM AGATHA WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                               

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

ZIHUATANEJO    34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

10N 100W       34  1   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

15N 100W       34  6  18(24)   7(31)   2(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
15N 100W       50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

ACAPULCO       34  2   5( 7)   5(12)   3(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)

P MALDONADO    34  1   7( 8)  10(18)   8(26)   1(27)   X(27)   X(27)
P MALDONADO    50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

P ANGEL        34  4  20(24)  37(61)  22(83)   5(88)   X(88)   X(88)
P ANGEL        50  X   2( 2)  13(15)  28(43)   6(49)   X(49)   X(49)
P ANGEL        64  X   X( X)   4( 4)  17(21)   5(26)   X(26)   X(26)

HUATULCO       34  1   3( 4)  26(30)  35(65)  11(76)   X(76)   X(76)
HUATULCO       50  X   X( X)   5( 5)  22(27)   6(33)   X(33)   X(33)
HUATULCO       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   4(12)   X(12)   X(12)

15N 95W        34  2   5( 7)  15(22)  22(44)   8(52)   X(52)   X(52)
15N 95W        50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   8(15)   X(15)   X(15)
15N 95W        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

TAPACHULA      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI                                               



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