000 WTPZ31 KNHC 282032 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Agatha Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022 400 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022 ...AGATHA GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING OFF SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 98.1W ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning from Salina Cruz to Lagunas de Chacahua, a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch from Salina Cruz to Barra De Tonala, and a Tropical Storm Warning from Barra De Tonala to Boca de Pijijiapan and from Lagunas De Chacahua to Punta Maldonado SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Salina Cruz to Lagunas de Chacahua A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Salina Cruz eastward to Barra De Tonala A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Salina Cruz eastward to Boca de Pijijiapan * Lagunas de Chacahua westward to Punta Maldonado A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should closely monitor the progress of Agatha. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Agatha was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 98.1 West. Agatha is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is forecast to occur late tonight or Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Agatha will approach the southern coast of Mexico on Sunday and make landfall there on Monday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is forecast, and Agatha could become a hurricane by early Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area and possible in the watch area on Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning areas on Monday. STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of where the center of Agatha makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico by Sunday into Tuesday night. The following rainfall amounts are currently expected: Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. Mexican state of Chiapas: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. Eastern portions of the Mexican state of Guerrero: 2 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. Mexican states of Vera Cruz and Tabasco: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches possible. SURF: Swells generated by Agatha are expected to begin affecting the coast of southern Mexico tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi