420 WTPZ41 KNHC 310237 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Agatha Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022 1000 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022 Satellite imagery indicates that Agatha continues to move farther inland, with a less organized cloud pattern. The initial wind speed is lowered to 60 kt, on the faster side of the overland weakening guidance due to the very high terrain. Agatha should continue to quickly weaken overnight due to further interactions with the mountains of Mexico, and it is forecast to dissipate by Tuesday afternoon near the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. The storm is moving northeastward at 7 kt. The global models continue to suggest that the mid-level remnants will merge with a broad low pressure system near the Yucatan peninsula, and there is some potential for the development of a new tropical cyclone in the northwestern Caribbean Sea or southern Gulf of Mexico later this week. Although Agatha is weakening, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides from heavy rains are still possible through Tuesday. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will continue over portions of southern Mexico through Tuesday. This will pose a threat of life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Tropical storm conditions will continue within the warning area through Tuesday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0300Z 16.2N 96.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 12H 31/1200Z 16.9N 95.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake