347 WTPZ41 KNHC 290848 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Agatha Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022 400 AM CDT Sun May 29 2022 During the past several hours, Agatha has somewhat shaken off the effects of shear and dry air intrusion noted in the last advisory. The convective pattern has improved in infrared satellite imagery, and just-received GMI microwave data show that the low- and mid-level centers have become better aligned. In addition, 37 GHz microwave data show improved low-level convective banding near the center, although there is not a closed ring of convection at this time. The initial intensity is increased to 60 kt based on a blend of the subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB along with the CIMSS ADT and satellite consensus estimates. The motion has continued to be a bit erratic during the past several hours, with the current motion estimated at 330/3 kt. Agatha is expected to turn northeastward later today as it becomes embedded in southwesterly flow between a mid- to upper-level trough over northern Mexico and a mid- to upper-level ridge to the east of the cyclone. This motion should bring the center of Agatha over the coast of southern Mexico on Monday. The track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, although the latest model runs are a little slower than the previous runs. The new forecast track is in the middle of the guidance envelope and has only minor adjustments from the previous forecast. The intensity forecast has gotten a little more uncertain. It now appears that Agatha will experience light to moderate westerly shear until landfall, which is somewhat less favorable of an environment than previously expected. However, the storm is in a generally moist environment with significant upper-level divergence, and it is over warm sea surface temperatures. While the intensity guidance has again trended slightly lower, the rapid intensification index of the SHIPS model continues to indicate high probabilities of rapid strengthening, with a 55-60 percent chance of a 45-kt increase between now and landfall. Given the uncertainty, the intensity forecast is again nudged slightly downward to follow the upper edge of the intensity guidance. However, it is possible it is conservative. After landfall, Agatha is expected to quickly weaken and dissipate as it crosses Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Dangerous coastal flooding from storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves is expected near and the east of where Agatha makes landfall. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in southern Mexico on Monday, with tropical storm conditions beginning there tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area on Monday. 3. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will develop over portions of southern Mexico later today and continue through Tuesday. This will pose a threat of potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 14.1N 98.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 14.4N 98.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 14.9N 98.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 15.5N 97.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 31/0600Z 16.3N 96.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 60H 31/1800Z 17.1N 95.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven