000 WTPZ41 KNHC 290236 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Agatha Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022 1000 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022 Conventional satellite imagery would suggest that Agatha has continued to intensify, with a strong burst of convection near the center. However, microwave data from the past few hours suggest that the structure of Agatha has actually degraded since the last advisory. This data reveals that the low- and mid-level centers of the tropical cyclone are not well-aligned, and the small core seen earlier has become less distinct. While the recent Dvorak estimates have risen slightly, I'm inclined to leave the intensity at 50 kt for this cycle given the microwave information. It seems like a bit of dry air along with some mid-level shear are potentially the reasons for the pause in intensification. This is only expected to be a short-term trend, since the environment generally looks to support more strengthening due to substantial mid-level moisture in the storm's path along with plenty of warm SSTs and low shear. The model guidance has trended lower on this cycle, perhaps placing too much emphasis on the recent lack of intensification. The new forecast is slightly lower than the previous one, about 5 kt, but is higher than any of the guidance on this cycle, owing to continuity and seemingly conducive large-scale conditions before landfall. The center of Agatha continues to wobble or even re-form near the deepest convection, with a long-term motion estimate of 325/3 kt. The storm should turn northeastward tomorrow and accelerate due to it becoming embedded in low- to middle-level southwesterly flow. Recent guidance has shifted somewhat westward near landfall in southern Mexico, but this is mostly due to the more westward initial position. The latest NHC track forecast is nudged westward near Mexico, lying between the GFS and dynamical model consensus TVCE. Agatha should dissipate over the higher terrain of Mexico in about 3 days, although the remnants are likely to move over the southwestern Gulf and the Yucatan Peninsula around the middle of next week. Key Messages: 1. Dangerous coastal flooding from storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves is expected near and the east of where Agatha makes landfall. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in southern Mexico on Monday, with tropical storm conditions beginning there Sunday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area on Monday. 3. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will develop over portions of southern Mexico by Sunday and continue through Tuesday. This will pose a threat of potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 13.9N 98.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 14.1N 98.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 14.6N 98.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 15.2N 97.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 31/0000Z 15.9N 96.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 60H 31/1200Z 16.7N 95.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake