000 WTPZ41 KNHC 281433 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Agatha Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022 1000 AM CDT Sat May 28 2022 Satellite images indicate that Agatha continues to gradually become better organized with a central dense overcast feature and a series of curved bands evident in the latest imagery. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were both 2.5/35 kt, but given recent trends, the initial intensity is set a little higher at 40 kt. Agatha is gradually turning to the right, but at a slow forward speed. Smoothing through the wobbles yields an initial motion of 285/4 kt. The storm is expected to gradually make a turn to the north later today or tonight, followed by a slightly faster northeastward motion on Sunday as Agatha becomes embedded in the flow between a ridge to the east and a trough to its northwest. This motion should take the storm inland over southern Mexico on Monday. The NHC track forecast is quite similar to the previous one and near the various consensus aids. The storm is expected to remain in near ideal environmental conditions of very low wind shear, high SSTs and oceanic heat, and a moist mid-level airmass until it reaches the coast of Mexico on Monday. In fact, several of the rapid intensification indices in the SHIPS model are higher than 60 percent, indicative that rapid intensification is a distinct possibility during the next day or so. Given these conditions and guidance, the NHC intensity forecast remains at the high end of the models and calls for Agatha to become a hurricane in 24 hours, with additional strengthening expected until landfall. Based on the current forecast, new watches and warnings will likely be required later today. Key Messages: 1. There is an increasing risk of tropical-storm-force and hurricane-force winds along portions of the southern coast of Mexico Sunday night and Monday, and a Hurricane Watch remains in effect for portions of this area. Interests should closely monitor the progress of this system and updates to the forecast. 2. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will develop over portions of southern Mexico by Sunday and continue through Tuesday. This will pose a threat of potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 13.2N 98.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 13.4N 98.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 13.8N 98.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 14.2N 98.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 14.8N 97.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 31/0000Z 15.8N 96.6W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND 72H 31/1200Z 16.8N 95.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi