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Tropical Depression Twelve Forecast Discussion


927 
WTNT42 KNHC 042042
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Twelve Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122022
500 PM AST Tue Oct 04 2022

A fairly concentrated area of deep convection has persisted near an 
area of low pressure that NHC has monitoring a few hundred miles 
west of the Cabo Verde Islands, and Dvorak classifications from TAFB 
and SAB are now a consensus T2.0/30 kt.  It hadn't been clear 
previously how well-defined the system was, but an ASCAT-C 
scatterometer pass from this morning suggested that a small 
circulation, with a well-defined center, had formed within the 
broader trough located over the eastern Atlantic.  Therefore, 
advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Twelve with 
maximum sustained winds of 30 kt.

The depression is located along the southwestern periphery of a 
mid-level high centered over northwestern Africa, and to the south 
of a prominent mid- to upper-level low.  This pattern should steer 
the cyclone northwestward or north-northwestward during the next 
couple of days.  The HWRF model is somewhat of an outlier to the 
northeast and is therefore pulling the track model consensus aids in 
that direction.  The NHC track is near or to the west of the 
consensus aids, more closely following the GFS and ECWMF global 
models.

Deep-layer southwesterly shear is already beginning to increase over 
the depression, and is likely to reach values of 30 to 35 kt in the 
next 36 to 48 hours.  The system has some potential to strengthen 
slightly and reach tropical storm strength tonight or on Wednesday, 
but for the most part the cyclone is expected to be short-lived.  
Global models show the system opening up into a trough in a few 
days, and the NHC forecast shows dissipation by 60 hours, which 
could be a little generous.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/2100Z 14.9N  30.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 15.9N  31.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 17.4N  32.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  06/0600Z 18.9N  33.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  06/1800Z 20.5N  35.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg




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