000 WTNT33 KNHC 070551 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Thirteen Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022 200 AM AST Fri Oct 07 2022 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA THIS MORNING... ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ABC ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.0N 70.4W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WSW OF CURACAO ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM ESE OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Coast of Colombia from Riohacha eastward to the Colombia/Venezuela border A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Interests along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the progress of the disturbance. Additional watches or warnings will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen was located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 70.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a generally westward motion is expected to continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the cyclone is expected to move near the coast of northwestern Venezuela and the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia this morning. The system is then forecast to move across the southwestern Caribbean Sea through Saturday, pass near San Andres and Providencia Islands Saturday night, and approach the coast of Nicaragua on Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected for the next 12-24 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. After that, a faster rate of strengthening is likely, with the system expected to become a hurricane by Saturday night as it approaches San Andres and Providencia Islands. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Thirteen can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible on the Colombian islands of San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Saturday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by Saturday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Colombia within the warning area this morning. Gusts to tropical storm force are possible across the ABC Islands and the northwestern coast of Venezuela early this morning. RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through early Monday: Northern Coastal Venezuela...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao...3 to 6 inches Guajira Peninsula...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches Eastern Nicaragua...6 to 10 inches, isolated 16 inches. Central Nicaragua...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Southwest Costa Rica and Southwestern Panama...4 to 8 inches, isolated 12 inches This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. There is also the potential for life-threatening mudslides across portions of Central America this weekend. STORM SURGE: A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. SURF: Swells generated by the cyclone are affecting the ABC Islands and portions of the coasts of northwestern Venezuela and the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia. These swells are forecast to spread westward and reach Jamaica late tonight, Providencia and San Andres Islands on Saturday, and portions of the coast of Central America on Saturday night and Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart