Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Depression Thirteen Forecast Advisory


404 
WTNT23 KNHC 070235
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132022
0300 UTC FRI OCT 07 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN ANDRES...PROVIDENCIA...AND SANTA CATALINA ISLANDS COLOMBIA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM RIOHACHA EASTWARD TO THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA
BORDER

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THE DISTURBANCE.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N  69.8W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N  69.8W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N  69.1W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 12.4N  72.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 13.0N  75.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  20SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 13.2N  78.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 13.2N  80.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  50SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 13.3N  83.1W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE  70SE  80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 13.9N  85.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 15.5N  90.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N  69.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 07/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN





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