Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Depression Thirteen Forecast Advisory


000
WTNT23 KNHC 070850
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132022
0900 UTC FRI OCT 07 2022

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN ANDRES...PROVIDENCIA...AND SANTA CATALINA ISLANDS COLOMBIA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM RIOHACHA EASTWARD TO THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA
BORDER

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THE DISTURBANCE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N  71.1W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N  71.1W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N  70.5W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 12.7N  73.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 13.1N  76.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 13.2N  79.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  40SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 13.2N  82.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 13.5N  84.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 14.1N  86.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 16.0N  91.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N  71.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 07/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART




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