Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Forecast Discussion


294 
WTPZ43 KNHC 160234
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132022
1000 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022

Satellite imagery indicates little change in the organization of 
Tropical Depression Thirteen-E, with the convection continuing in 
loosely organized bands displaced to the west and southwest of the 
low-level center due to northeasterly vertical wind shear.  
Satellite intensity estimates are in the 25-30 kt range, and based 
on that data, the initial intensity remains 30 kt.  

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 315/3.  The depression is 
forecast to move generally northwestward during the next 2-3 days 
around the eastern portion of monsoonal flow that is established 
over the eastern Pacific south of Mexico. As this flow strengthens 
during the next day or so, the depression should move at a faster 
forward speed, with the center forecast to move near or over the 
coast of Mexico Saturday or Saturday night.  There has been little 
change in the track guidance since the last advisory, and the new 
forecast track is very similar to the previous track.

Moderate northeasterly shear should continue to affect the cyclone 
during the time it is over water, and thus only gradual 
intensification is expected.  The new intensity forecast calls for 
the depression to become a tropical storm late tonight or on 
Friday, and shows continued gradual strengthening until landfall on 
the coast of Mexico.  Rapid weakening is expected after landfall, 
and the cyclone should dissipate over the mountains of Mexico by 72 
h. The new intensity forecast has only minor adjustments from the 
previous forecast.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains from Tropical Depression Thirteen-E will reach 
portions of coastal southern Mexico on Friday, increasing in 
coverage and intensity by Saturday and Saturday night. This 
rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding, along with isolated 
mudslides in areas of higher terrain. 

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of
southern Mexico between Laguna de Chacahua and Zihautenajo beginning
on Saturday and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for that
area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0300Z 12.8N  95.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  16/1200Z 13.4N  96.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  17/0000Z 14.4N  97.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  17/1200Z 15.7N  99.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  18/0000Z 17.3N 100.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 60H  18/1200Z 19.0N 102.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven




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