000 WTPZ43 KNHC 101435 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Terry Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021 700 AM PST Wed Nov 10 2021 Conventional satellite imagery shows that Terry's cloud pattern has changed little overnight, and the depression remains a poorly organized tropical cyclone. A fortuitous 1142 UTC SSMIS microwave pass consisted of fragmented curved bands south and well to the west of a southwest to northeast elongated surface center. The initial intensity is held at 25 kt for this advisory. Dry, stable air intrusion and slightly cooler oceanic sea surface temperatures should inhibit any further strengthening from occurring through the forecast period. The large-scale models and the statistical SHIPS intensity guidance are in agreement with Terry degenerating into a remnant low by Friday, if not sooner, and dissipating over the weekend. The official intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous one, following a compromise of the aforementioned guidance and the IVCN intensity consensus aid. Terry's initial motion is still estimated to be 270/13 kt. There is no change to the track forecast reasoning. Terry is expected to continue on a westward heading during the next few days within the low- to mid-level steering flow produced by a subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone. The NHC track forecast, once again, follows the better performing HCCA and TVCE multi-model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 11.7N 116.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 11.6N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 11.4N 121.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 11.2N 124.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 10.9N 127.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/0000Z 10.6N 129.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts