000 WTPZ45 KNHC 132040 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 13 2022 Recent scatterometer data indicated that the circulation associated with the low pressure area that NHC has been tracking over the previous few days has become better defined within the past 24 hours. Although convection is limited to the western portion of the circulation, the system has had sufficient organized and persistent thunderstorm activity to be classified as a tropical depression. The initial wind speed is set at 30 kt and is based on a blend of the satellite-derived surface wind speeds and the Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB. The depression is not expected to strengthen and be a rather short-lived tropical cyclone. The system is currently within an area of modest northeasterly shear and the upper-level winds are forecast to increase within the next 24 hours. Although the forecast does not explicitly call for the system to become a tropical storm, it could strengthen slightly within the next 12-24 hours. After that time frame, the vertical wind shear is predicted to increase and limit any further intensification. The official forecast shows the depression becoming a remnant low by 48 hours. The system is moving west-northwestward at 9 kt around the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge over northwestern Mexico. The ridge is forecast to build westward over the next day or two, which should cause the depression to turn westward. As the vortex weakens and becomes more shallow, it should slow in forward speed and drift west-southwestward. The NHC track forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope, close to the model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 18.0N 111.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 18.3N 112.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 18.6N 113.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 18.5N 114.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 18.2N 114.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 16/0600Z 17.9N 115.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci/Brown