Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ45 KNHC 150832
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102022
300 AM MDT Mon Aug 15 2022

Tropical Depression Ten-E is barely hanging on as a tropical
cyclone.  Deep convection has been decreasing and is now confined to
a disorganized patch on the system's southwest side.  An ASCAT-B
pass from a few hours ago indicated that the maximum winds have
decreased to 20-25 kt, and the initial intensity is nudged down to
25 kt based on that data.  The depression is currently in an
environment of about 20 kt of easterly shear, and since the shear
isn't expected to let up, continued weakening is forecast.  The
system is expected to become a remnant low later today and dissipate
by the end of the week.

The depression has barely moved during the past 12 hours, with the
initial motion estimated to be a westward drift at 2 kt.  The weak
steering pattern is expected to persist for a little longer, which
should keep the system on a very slow westward or west-southwestward
motion during the next day or so.  After that, the remnant low is
forecast to move a touch faster to the west.  The NHC track forecast
is a little to the north of the previous one and close to the
various consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0900Z 18.0N 113.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 17.9N 113.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  16/0600Z 17.8N 114.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  16/1800Z 17.7N 115.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  17/0600Z 17.7N 116.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  17/1800Z 17.8N 117.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  18/0600Z 18.0N 118.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



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