Pacific Hurricane Feed

Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion

WTPZ45 KNHC 140235

Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102022
900 PM MDT Sat Aug 13 2022

The depression has maintained a sheared appearance in satellite 
imagery this evening. The low-level center is exposed to the east of 
its deep convective overcast, which has a sharp eastern edge as 
moderate east-northeasterly shear continues to impinge on its 
circulation. The distance between the center and the cold overcast 
has slightly increased from earlier today, and the initial intensity 
is held at 30 kt for this advisory. This is consistent with a blend 
of the various objective and subjective satellite estimates, which 
range from 25 to 35 kt.

Ten-E is expected to be a short-lived tropical cyclone, as the 
moderate deep-layer shear currently plaguing the system is forecast 
to strengthen during the next couple of days. So although SSTs 
remain above 26 deg C along its forecast track, the shear will 
continue to disrupt the system's vertical organization and import 
drier mid-level air from the east into its circulation. The official 
NHC forecast shows little change in strength during the next 12-24 
h, followed by gradual weakening as the system is forecast to lose 
deep organized convection and degenerate into a remnant low in 36 h. 
The remnant low could meander for a day or so before it succumbs to 
increased shear and drier air and eventually opens into a trough.  

The depression is still moving west-northwestward (285/7 kt) around 
a low- to mid-level ridge over northern Mexico. The vertically 
shallow system should gradually turn westward to west-southwestward 
over the next couple of days as it becomes steered by the low-level 
flow. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous 
one and remains close to the multi-model consensus aids.


INIT  14/0300Z 18.2N 112.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 18.4N 113.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 18.5N 114.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  15/1200Z 18.4N 114.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  16/0000Z 18.2N 115.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  16/1200Z 17.9N 115.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Reinhart

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