Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Forecast Advisory


125 
WTPZ21 KNHC 100848
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162021
0900 UTC SUN OCT 10 2021

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 102.9W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 102.9W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 102.2W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 15.1N 105.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.8N 107.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 16.6N 108.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  80SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 17.8N 109.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE  70SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 19.0N 109.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 20.7N 109.4W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  90SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 25.2N 106.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 102.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN





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