Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Depression Seven Forecast Advisory


000
WTNT22 KNHC 141458
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072022
1500 UTC WED SEP 14 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO
RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  TROPICAL STORM
WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER
TODAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N  49.6W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N  49.6W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N  49.1W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.7N  51.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 16.8N  53.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.9N  56.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.0N  59.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.1N  62.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.4N  64.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 18.0N  68.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 19.1N  71.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N  49.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN




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