791 WTPZ44 KNHC 090240 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Sandra Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192021 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 700 PM PST Mon Nov 08 2021 Sandra's satellite presentation continues to degrade. Visible imagery shows that the low-level center has been exposed for most of the day, with limited deep convection located north and east of the center. Latest analyses indicate that the depression is embedded in an environment characterized by significant southwesterly vertical wind shear, and Sandra is barely hanging on as a tropical cyclone. The current intensity for this advisory has been maintained at 30 kt, primarily based on earlier ASCAT data, which indicated these winds were limited to the northeast and east semicircles. Sandra has been moving generally toward the west today, but there have been some short-term wobbles in the track as occasional pulses of deep convection helped to pull the center slightly northward. The smoothed initial motion estimate for this advisory is 270/13 kt. The updated track forecast anticipates that surface high pressure building north of the system will keep it on general westward track, with a slight turn toward the west-southwest on Tuesday. This is in line with a tightly clustered guidance suite, and very close to the TVCN consensus. Guidance indicates that southwesterly vertical wind shear on the order of 20-30 kt will persist, as the decaying cyclone remains between an upper-level anticyclone to the east and a trough to the northwest. This environment is not conducive for organized deep convection to persist over the center, and Sandra is forecast to soon degenerate into a remnant low. The updated intensity forecast indicates this will occur early Tuesday, with dissipation following soon thereafter, closely following SHIPS guidance and the ECMWF global model solution. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 15.3N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 15.2N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 10/0000Z 14.7N 122.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Birchard