Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Depression Pamela Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ41 KNHC 132036
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Pamela Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162021
400 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

As Pamela has moved further inland over the high, rugged terrain of 
west-central Mexico, its satellite structure has deteriorated 
markedly. Inland surface observations also suggest that the 
system's low-level circulation is becoming ill-defined. Following 
the typical rapid rate of decay of tropical cyclones over this 
portion of Mexico, the maximum sustained winds are quickly 
lowering, now estimated at 30 kt this advisory, making 
Pamela a tropical depression.

The estimated motion continues to accelerate, now at 045/24 kt. 
This motion and heading should continue until the system 
dissipates over the higher terrain of Central Mexico this 
evening. A 12 hour point in this forecast has been provided for 
continuity purposes though the surface center will likely dissipate 
beforehand. This track also represents where the remnant mid-level 
vorticity maximum of Pamela will continue to propagate 
northeastward. This feature is also associated with a deep-layer 
moisture plume that is expected to contribute to heavy rainfall and 
flooding impacts over the south-central United States.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains and the threat of flash flooding associated with 
Pamela will be diminishing through tonight over Mexico.

2. Heavy rains associated with the remnants of Pamela are expected 
across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma through 
Thursday. This may result in considerable flash and urban flooding 
impacts.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/2100Z 26.0N 103.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 12H  14/0600Z 28.6N 100.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 24H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Papin



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