Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Forecast Advisory


000
WTPZ24 KNHC 200239
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192022
0300 UTC THU OCT 20 2022

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 101.3W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 101.3W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 101.0W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 15.3N 102.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.6N 103.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.0N 104.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.6N 105.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.6N 105.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 18.9N 106.3W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 22.5N 105.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 101.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART




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