Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Depression Newton Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ45 KNHC 251429
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Newton Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152022
800 AM PDT Sun Sep 25 2022

Newton barely qualifies as a tropical depression this morning, with 
a small area of not-exactly-organized deep convection, which has 
been weakening during the past few hours.  The initial wind speed 
is held at 30 kt, perhaps generously.  The system should gradually 
weaken due to persistent southerly shear helping to entrain drier 
air into the circulation.  This environment should eliminate any 
significant convection by this evening, and remnant low status is 
now indicated in 12 hours.  

The depression is turning leftward, with the motion now estimated 
at 240/8 kt.  Newton should move southwestward during the next few 
days due to the orientation of the low-level ridge, and the model 
guidance is in good agreement on this scenario.  No significant 
changes were made to the previous NHC forecast for track or 
intensity.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/1500Z 19.0N 116.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 18.3N 117.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  26/1200Z 17.1N 118.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  27/0000Z 15.8N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  27/1200Z 14.5N 121.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  28/0000Z 13.5N 123.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake



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