000 WTPZ45 KNHC 250842 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Newton Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152022 200 AM PDT Sun Sep 25 2022 This morning's conventional satellite presentation consists of a partially exposed, well-defined surface circulation with a recent, shapeless burst of deep convection near and north of the surface center. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt and is supported by the subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimate from TAFB and SAB. Increasing shear magnitude and intrusion of dry stable air should degenerate Newton by early Monday, or possibly sometime today. The statistical SHIPS intensity guidance has Newton as a persistent depression through early Tuesday, but the global models show Newton decaying earlier, and the NHC forecast follows the latter solution. Newton's initial motion is 260/7 kt, a little left of due west. A west-southwestward turn is expected by this evening, followed by a turn southwestward early Monday while embedded in the northeasterly low-level trade wind flow. The official track forecast is slightly faster than the 0300 UTC advisory beyond the 24-hour period and has been adjusted south to align more closely to the NOAA HFIP consensus model and the TVCE aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 19.4N 115.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 19.0N 116.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 17.8N 117.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/1800Z 16.4N 119.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0600Z 15.0N 120.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 27/1800Z 13.7N 122.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts