Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones

Tropical Depression Newton Forecast Discussion


000
WTPZ45 KNHC 250842
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Newton Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152022
200 AM PDT Sun Sep 25 2022

This morning's conventional satellite presentation consists of a
partially exposed, well-defined surface circulation with a recent, 
shapeless burst of deep convection near and north of the surface 
center.  The initial intensity is held at 30 kt and is supported by 
the subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimate from TAFB and 
SAB.  Increasing shear magnitude and intrusion of dry stable air 
should degenerate Newton by early Monday, or possibly sometime 
today.  The statistical SHIPS intensity guidance has Newton as a 
persistent depression through early Tuesday, but the global models 
show Newton decaying earlier, and the NHC forecast follows the 
latter solution.

Newton's initial motion is 260/7 kt, a little left of due west. 
A west-southwestward turn is expected by this evening, followed by 
a turn southwestward early Monday while embedded in the 
northeasterly low-level trade wind flow.  The official track 
forecast is slightly faster than the 0300 UTC advisory beyond the 
24-hour period and has been adjusted south to align more closely to 
the NOAA HFIP consensus model and the TVCE aid.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0900Z 19.4N 115.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  25/1800Z 19.0N 116.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  26/0600Z 17.8N 117.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  26/1800Z 16.4N 119.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  27/0600Z 15.0N 120.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  27/1800Z 13.7N 122.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts



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